Unemployment Rate

Is a US recession imminent in 2025? As global markets face growing uncertainty, the potential for an economic downturn has become a pressing concern for investors. While economists remain divided on the exact timing and scale, key economic indicators suggest that we may be on the verge of challenging times. By understanding these indicators and how they impact various markets - stocks, forex, and commodities - you can better navigate the turbulence ahead and make more informed investment decisions.

Forex trading is a complex landscape where currencies are traded based on global economic conditions. At the heart of this trading are economic indicators - critical data points that reveal a country’s financial health and shape market perceptions. Traders closely monitor these indicators to gauge the strength or weakness of a currency and anticipate central bank actions. The release of economic data can lead to swift market movements, often sparking volatility as traders react to new information.

How much does the unemployment rate really influence the global markets? With every economic report, traders and investors anxiously watch the numbers, knowing that even a slight shift can ripple across industries and asset classes. As a vital economic indicator, the unemployment rate plays a central role in shaping market trends, impacting everything from stock prices to forex movements.

Key events: UK - Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Sep) UK - Unemployment Rate (Sep) UK - BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks USA - Fed Waller Speaks USA - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks The Dow continued its rally on Monday, closing above 44,000 for the first time amid strong momentum in the stock market. Investors are eagerly awaiting key inflation data and statements from several Federal Reserve officials that could impact the near-term outlook for economic policy.

Key events: USA - OPEC Monthly Report Canada - Building Permits (MoM) (Jun) USA - Federal Budget Balance (Jul) The S&P 500 closed Friday higher, led by gains in the tech sector, as stocks continued to recover from a sharp selloff earlier in the week, which was driven by recession fears.

Key events: USA - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) USA - Unemployment Rate (Jun) USA - Fed Monetary Policy Report European shares rose on Thursday, driven by hopes for potential US interest rate cuts following weak economic data. Simultaneously, London's markets surged as voting commenced in the UK general election, with polls indicating a historic Labour Party victory.

Key events: USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - PPI (MoM) (May) USA - 30-Year Bond Auction On Wednesday, the S&P 500 achieved an intraday record high before closing with a gain, despite the Federal Reserve indicating only a single rate cut for this year. Positive sentiment was buoyed by data revealing that May's inflation was cooler than anticipated.

Key events: Canada - Building Permits (MoM) (Mar) USA - FOMC Member Mester Speaks Global equities surged on Friday, driving European stocks to new record highs amid robust corporate earnings and expectations of imminent central bank interest rate cuts. Despite signs of decelerating US economic growth, the dollar managed to edge higher.

Key events: USA - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov) USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) USA - Unemployment Rate (Nov) USA - Michigan Consumer Sentiment   The Dow Jones Industrial Average appears poised to conclude its five-week streak of gains, as the index experienced a decline over the initial three sessions of the week. Despite a modest 0.2% uptick on Thursday, confidence in the DJIA's upward momentum remains tentative.

Key events: Canada - Ivey PMI (Oct) UK - BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks  The Dow concluded the week on a high note, achieving its most substantial weekly gain of the year, largely driven by a weaker-than-expected jobs report that fueled optimism about the Federal Reserve's rate hike intentions, causing Treasury yields to plummet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a 222-point or 0.7% increase, while the S&P 500 experienced a 0.9% rise, and the NASDAQ Composite surged by 1.4%.