US Treasury

Key events: USA - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks UK - BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Mar) The S&P 500 ended the day flat on Monday, experiencing swings between gains and losses as cautious trading prevailed ahead of the latest inflation data and the start of the first-quarter earnings season later in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 11 points, or 0.03%, while the S&P 500 edged down by 2 points, or 0.04%. Conversely, the NASDAQ Composite rose by 5 points, or 0.03%.

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Key events: USA - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb) USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) USA - Unemployment Rate (Feb) The S&P 500 achieved a new record high on Thursday, driven by gains in the tech sector. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's reaffirmation of potential rate cuts this year fueled investor confidence, reinforcing the belief that global central banks are likely to initiate monetary policy easing measures in June.

Key events: UK - CPI (YoY) (Jan) USA - Crude Oil Inventories Japan - GDP (QoQ) (Q4) On Tuesday, the Dow experienced a substantial decline, marking its most significant daily loss since March 2023. This downturn was triggered by a surge in Treasury yields, propelled by an inflation report that exceeded expectations. The report dampened hopes for an earlier and more aggressive Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle.

Key events: Eurozone - German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) USA - CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) USA - JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) China - Manufacturing PMI (Jan) The beginning of the week witnessed a cautious tone in European markets, as both the CAC 40 and DAX hovered around last week's record closing highs. Today's economic data is anticipated to reinforce signs of weak economic activity in Europe.

Key events: Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speaks Japan - BoJ Interest Rate Decision On Friday, the S&P 500 achieved an unprecedented high as investors continued to gravitate toward prominent tech stocks. This surge was fueled by encouraging data revealing heightened consumer sentiment and a moderation in inflation expectations.

Key events: Australia - Trade Balance (Oct) China - Exports (YoY) (Nov) China - Imports (YoY) (Nov) China - Trade Balance (USD) (Nov) USA - Initial Jobless Claims Canada - BoC Gov Macklem Speaks On Wednesday, the Dow closed in negative territory, extending its sluggish performance for the week, despite growing indications of a slowdown in the job market that fueled hopes for an eventual Federal Reserve rate cut.

Key events:  New Zealand - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision USA - GDP (QoQ) (Q3) USA - FOMC Member Mester Speaks USA - Beige Book On Tuesday, the Dow saw an upward trend, supported by a decline in Treasury yields, fueled by dovish statements from certain Federal Reserve officials, intensifying expectations of imminent rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced an increase of 83 points, equivalent to 0.2%, while the S&P 500 exhibited a 0.1% rise, and the NASDAQ Composite recorded a 0.3% increase.

Key events:  USA - Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep) USA - Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep) Eurozone - EU Leaders Summit US stocks experienced a significant decline on Thursday, primarily driven by a drop in tech and tech-related large-cap stocks. This downturn was in response to a mix of quarterly earnings reports and indications of economic resilience, which could potentially lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer duration than initially anticipated.

Key events: USA - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) USA - Unemployment Rate (Sep) US stocks experienced a modest decline on Thursday, rebounding from earlier session lows, as investors awaited the monthly jobs report and sought insights into future interest rate trends. The S&P 500 managed to hold above its 200-day moving average, currently fluctuating around 4,206.