CPI inflation page 3

Key events:  USA - GDP (QoQ) (Q1) USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) On Wednesday, the major indices of Wall Street closed in negative territory due to the ongoing discussions between the White House and Republican representatives regarding the increase in the US debt ceiling, which have not resulted in a deal yet.

Key events:         Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes      UK – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Feb) UK – Claimant Count Change (Mar) USA – Building Permits (Mar)    Canada – Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) Last week risky assets received a decent boost for growth in the form of inflation data. However, this data did not influence much the dynamics of risk instruments – a small cautiousness of market participants is noticeable. So how will the situation be in reality now?

Key events:       US – Martin Luther King, Jr. Day UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks The recently released CPI is prompting investors to question the Fed's plans to raise the overnight rate above 5%. The market doesn't seem to care, and after this data coincides with the forecast, yields are falling across the curve. Thus, 2-year Treasury yields have fallen to their lowest level since October, with room to fall substantially.

Key events:       USA – Fed Chair Powell Speaks      USA – EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook    

Key events:       UK – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Dec) Canada – RMPI (MoM) (Nov) New Zealand – Trade Balance (MoM) (Nov) U.S. stocks declined on Friday, with the S&P down 1%, and a similar decline was seen in Europe as the market continued to digest the hawkish messages from the ECB and the Fed last week. Over the week, the S&P was down 2%. U.S. 10-year bond yields rose 3 bps to 3.48% on Friday and were down 10 bps for the week.