Bank of China
Key events: USA – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) USA – New Home Sales (Jan) The latest GDP data from the U.S. showed that the U.S. economy grew 2.7% in Q4, not 2.9% as analysts had anticipated. Softer economic growth might have helped ease inflation and softened the Fed's hand. That didn't happen, however, as the GDP Price Index, another measure of inflation that was released along with the GDP data, showed that inflation fell in Q4, but fell much less than expected, fully reflecting the CPI and PPI data released last week.
Key events: USA – Washington's Birthday China – PBoC Loan Prime Rate
Key events: UK – GDP (MoM) UK – GDP (YoY) UK – GDP (QoQ) UK – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov) The U.S. consumer inflation report was the most important statistical release of the week. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor yesterday: The consumer price index (CPI) in December fell 0.1% from November (m/m) and rose 6.5% from the same month a year earlier (y/y); The data were in line with the forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Key events: USA – Initial Jobless Claims USA – Crude Oil Inventories Yesterday we could see quite weak activity in the financial markets as traders continue to celebrate Christmas and wait for a new year. And today markets are definitely feeling the holiday trade: light news flow combined with low liquidity led to uneven but ultimately insignificant movements. It looks very much like we are now just drifting into 2023, which is when things will pick up quickly again.
Key events: Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speaks USA – Initial Jobless Claims European markets continued their third consecutive day of declines yesterday amid concerns over weak economic data and a tighter inflation outlook, while the U.S. markets also continued their losing streak with the S&P 500 index closing lower for the 5th consecutive day.
Key events: UK – Construction PMI (Nov) Canada – Ivey PMI (Nov) Australia – RBA Rate Statement USA – EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook U.S. stocks fell while bond yields jumped after the release of positive ISM service sector data suggesting that the most important part of the U.S. economy, where sticky inflation lives, is not close to collapse.
Key events: UK – Composite PMI UK – Manufacturing PMI UK – Services PMI USA – Building Permits USA – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) USA – Initial Jobless Claims USA – New Home Sales (Oct) USA – Crude Oil Inventories USA – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Key events: UK – Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speaks USA – Existing Home Sales (Oct) The sentimental background on Friday morning can be called moderately positive. Oil prices are rising after falling the day before, and the mood on global stock exchanges has slightly improved. The markets can look forward to a fairly calm end to the week after the volatility of the previous sessions.
Key events: UK - Construction PMI (Sep) Eurozone - ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting USA - Initial Jobless Claims Canada - Ivey PMI (Sep)