U.S. dollar

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Key events: Australia - RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)                 USA - JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)                On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower, largely driven by declines in the energy and utilities sectors. This decline coincided with a continued rise in Treasury yields, following the US government's last-minute funding measure to avert a shutdown and keep the government funded for the next 45 days.

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Key events:         UK – CPI (YoY) (Mar) Eurozone – CPI (YoY) (Mar)   USA – Crude Oil Inventories On Tuesday, Wall Street closed almost flat as investors evaluated statements from US Federal Reserve officials. While the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hit its lowest level since January 2022 at just under 17, stock prices failed to respond positively. This indicates that investors may be holding onto cash amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Funds rate peak.

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Key events:         UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks This week will help determine what the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next rate decision will be. The U.S. central bank faces the difficult task of striking a balance between its ongoing fight against inflation and mounting signs of financial instability. So, will the Fed's main inflation indicator continue to decline?

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Key events:         Eurozone – CPI (YoY) (Feb) Yesterday's ECB decision was crucial as it gave the first glimpse of what bank stress means for monetary policy. And it meant nothing special – good news for the markets. The ECB decided not to blow up the banking problems and announced a 50bp rate hike during yesterday's decision, pointing to high inflation. The opening sentence of ECB head Christine Lagarde's speech stated that the bank has been forecasting "too high inflation for too long."

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Key events:         Austalia – RBA Meeting Minutes      UK – Composite PMI     UK – Manufacturing PMI   UK – Services PMI Canada – Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)   Canada – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) USA – Ex-sting Home Sales (Jan) The dollar weakened slightly against the euro, the Danish, and the Swedish krona, but added against the other G10 currencies. The yen weakened by 2% to become the weakest currency in the G10 group.

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Key events:       Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speaks      USA - Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec)   USA - Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)   The dollar gained against all currencies of the Big Ten yesterday amid the published economic data. The strengthening of the dollar coincided with the growth of risk appetite in Europe and the U.S. In this case, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes interrupted a two-day decline and rose Thursday to 4.18%, and the yield on 10-year bonds rose 5 bps to 3.49%.

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